USD/JPY Signal Update
Last Thursday’s signals expired without being triggered.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%
Entries may be made either before 5pm today New York time, or between 8am Tokyo time and 8am London time tomorrow (Friday).
Long Trade 1
Go long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart after a first touch of the long-term bullish trend line currently at around 101.37.
Place a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 101.74.
Remove 25% of the position as profit at 101.74, then 50% of the original position size at 102.00, and then leave the remainder of the position to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
The NFP last Friday spiked the price all the way up to the resistance level at 103.00, following which the price fell steadily and in recent days has again been testing the lows below 101.50. Although the pair looks very heavy, these lows have been surprisingly resilient.
Over the last couple of days we have had a bullish bounce off the inner bullish trend line, but the very long-term trend line has still not been hit yet, although this can only be seen on a short-term chart. That trend line is currently at 101.37 and I am looking for a long entry there.
The price has been bouncing around over the last 48 hours so entries have to be taken with some caution. We have flipped support to resistance at 101.89 which would normally be a bearish sign. I am not looking for a short here yet however as although the trend is bearish, we have only just made this level recently, and we also have this very long-term bullish trend line below. For these reasons, the only trade I am looking for at the moment would be a long confirmed by price action off 101.37.
A daily close below 101.29 would be very significant for this pair and could signal a decisively bearish trend.
There is no high-impact news due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, at 1:30pm there will be the release of USD Unemployment Claims data followed by the Chair of the Federal Reserve speaking at 2:30pm.