The WTI Crude Oil markets fell during the bulk of the session on Monday, testing the $102.50 level. The market has been very bullish lately, but you have to keep in mind that there is a gap that needed to be filled. With that, it appears that the market is trying to find its footing in this general vicinity to continue to go higher overall. If we find some type of supportive candle in this general vicinity, I have no hesitation whatsoever to start buying this market as it has been so positive.
I still see the $105 level above as the absolute resistance barrier that needs to be overcome for a longer-term buy-and-hold type of situation, but ultimately I believe it will get overtaken. In the meantime, buying pullbacks will be the way to go, probably off of shorter-term charts.
The US dollar might work against this contract for a wild.
The US dollar looks like it’s ready to breakout to the upside based upon the US Dollar Index, and as a result I think that perhaps that might keep this market underneath the $105 level for the time being. Ultimately though, I think that oil markets will rise regardless of what the US dollar does, simply because there are far too many issues out there working against cheaper oil for the longer term.
Don’t forget, Russia is a major exporter of oil, and there is a lot of trepidation at the moment about what’s going on in the Ukraine. With that, it’s really not going to be a big surprise of a headline comes along and push the market higher. With this in mind, I am in “buy only” mode, and believe that most traders will agree with me on that point. Ultimately, I believe that the so-called “smart money” is buying this market, and on top of that, I can see a potential ascending triangle at this point in time. With that formation, it is very bullish and as a result a move above the $105 level should send this market looking for $113, based upon the shape of the triangle.
