The TRY/JPY pair initially fell during the session on Wednesday, but found enough support at the 47.50 level in order to form a hammer. With this, the market looks like it’s ready to bounce again, although we have been going sideways for a while. Adding to the pressure though is the fact that there is a little bit of an uptrend line that I have drawn on this chart, and because of that I think there is the possibility that we go higher at this point. I have been longing of this market for some time, mainly because it’s one of the few pairs of pays a decent swap these days.
If the jobs number out of the United States today comes on fairly strong, the USD/JPY pair should go much higher. There is a knock on effect over in this market place, as the Japanese yen would be selling off in general. The Turkish lira is a “risk on” type of currency, and with a decent swap that you get, as long as we can stay at least somewhat afloat, it often gives you quite a bit of time to stay in a position.
The opposite is true of course.
The opposite of course will be true in a situation like this. The Turkish lira gets absolutely don’t want people are nervous, but ultimately I believe that this market does go quite a bit higher. After all, the Japanese yen is being worked against buying the Bank of Japan, and that should continue to be the case. The Turkish central bank has recently raised rates, but there is the concern of the conflict in Syria and Iraq being on the border. After all, when you’re right next door to two wars, it’s a bit disconcerting for investors. However, the longer term and so-called “smart money” would have to understand that NATO absolutely will not allow Turkey to go the way of Syria and Iraq, as the below would be devastating to security for the European region. Ultimately, I believe this market does go higher, and on a break above the 48 level, I’m willing to start buying again.
