Quantitative Forecast
Academic studies have shown that the most reliable way to determine future price movements from past price movements, is by use of momentum.
In the Forex market, a momentum study is best applied to the four major Forex currency pairs by simply checking whether the weekly close is above or below the weekly close 13 weeks ago.
If the price is higher, the statistical edge is in trading that pair long.
If the price is lower, the statistical edge is in trading that pair short.
On this basis, the quantitative momentum forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:
Technical Forecast
The question as to whether an experienced chart-reading technical analyst can outperform a simple momentum model warrants a live experiment. Looking at the weekly charts for each of the four major pairs, I will try to determine the line of least resistance, and forecast the directional edge using my own technical analysis.
On this basis, my technical analysis forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:
Last week saw strong momentum in the direction of the bullish USD trend. There is no reason to doubt the probability of this to continue next week, except for the fact that there is probably strong support close by that will cause a retracement in EUR/USD, and USD/CHF these days tends to be very closely correlated with EUR/USD. Therefore, I am forecasting a different outcome to the quantitative forecast in these two pairs.
Summary
The quantitative and technical forecasts agree on USD/JPY and GBP/USD, and disagree on EUR/USD and USD/CHF.
Next week, we will review how these forecasts performed.
Previous Forecasts
These forecasts have been running for 2 weeks.
Both the technical and quantitative forecasts were wrong last week.
Last week, the quantitative forecast was completely right, and the technical forecast wholly wrong, with the exception of USD/JPY:
The running totals of the forecasts after 2 weeks so far are as follows: