USD/JPY Signal Update
Last Thursday’s signal expired without being triggered as the price never reached 117.00.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%
Trades may only be entered between 8am London time and 5pm New York time; and then from 8am Tokyo time.
Long Trade 1
Long entry following retest and bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately following the next touch of the broken bearish trend line below current price.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade 2
Long entry following retest and bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately following the next touch of 117.03.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
Just when it looked like this pair was running out of steam again, there was some fairly strong buying as we approached the expected support at 117.03 and the price has moved up to – just – make a new multi-year high before falling off again.
It is always hard to predict the end of extremely strong trends such as this one. If you look at a weekly chart, you will notice that every recent week has made a higher low. Position traders probably do not want to be thinking about any serious exits until at least a weekly low is broken!
We may have formed a double top at 119.00 but that is very questionable.
The best opportunities look to be longs again, either from a retest of the broken trend line, or at a return to the previously resistant double top at 117.03.
There are no high-impact data releases scheduled today that will directly affect the JPY. Regarding the USD, at 3pm London time there will be a release of U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data.