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Forex Forecast – Quant vs Chart Reading - 26 April 2015

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

Quantitative Forecast

Academic studies have shown that the most reliable way to determine future price movements from past price movements, is by use of momentum.

In the Forex market, a momentum study is best applied to the four major Forex currency pairs by simply checking whether the weekly close is above or below the weekly close 13 weeks ago.

If the price is higher, the statistical edge is in trading that pair long.

If the price is lower, the statistical edge is in trading that pair short.

On this basis, the quantitative momentum forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:

Chart 1 42615

 

Technical Forecast

The question as to whether an experienced chart-reading technical analyst can outperform a simple momentum model warrants a live experiment. Looking at the weekly charts for each of the four major pairs, I will try to determine the line of least resistance, and forecast the directional edge using my own technical analysis.

On this basis, my technical analysis forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:

Chart 2 42615

 

Last week saw the GBP and to a lesser extent the USD both strengthen. The market is presenting a mixed and choppy picture without truly clear long-term trends. The quantitative analysis is showing the USD as most likely to strengthen against all of its major paired currencies with the exception of the GBP. Technically, it looks more likely that the CHF and the JPY will strengthen slightly against the USD over the coming week.

Summary

The quantitative and forecast differ on the JPY and CHF.

Next week, we will review how these forecasts performed.

Previous Forecasts

These forecasts have been running for 19 weeks.

Last week, the technical and quantitative forecasts both produced negative results overall. The USD weakened across the board. The results were as follows:

Chart 3 42615

 

The running totals of the forecasts after 19 weeks so far are as follows:

Chart 4 42615

 

Both forecasts have performed negatively to date, due solely to the very sharp and historically unprecedented counter-trend moves in the CHF over recent months. Excluding the USD/CHF pair, both have been performing positively, but the Quantitative forecast has performed significantly better.

Adam Lemon
About Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

 

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