Quantitative Forecast
Academic studies have shown that the most reliable way to determine future price movements from past price movements, is by use of momentum.
In the Forex market, a momentum study is best applied to the four major Forex currency pairs by simply checking whether the weekly close is above or below the weekly close 13 weeks ago.
If the price is higher, the statistical edge is in trading that pair long.
If the price is lower, the statistical edge is in trading that pair short.
On this basis, the quantitative momentum forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:
Technical Forecast
The question as to whether an experienced chart-reading technical analyst can outperform a simple momentum model warrants a live experiment. Looking at the weekly charts for each of the four major pairs, I will try to determine the line of least resistance, and forecast the directional edge using my own technical analysis.
On this basis, my technical analysis forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:
Last week saw a dramatic strengthening of the EUR and CHF before the USD began to strengthen again at the end of the week. The market is presenting a mixed and choppy picture without truly clear long-term trends. However, the quantitative analysis is showing the USD as most likely to strengthen against all of its major paired currencies. Technically, it looks probable that the strong bullish momentum in the EUR and to a lesser extent the CHF will continue and see some rise against the USD over the coming week.
Summary
The quantitative and forecast differ on the JPY and CHF.
Next week, we will review how these forecasts performed.
Previous Forecasts
These forecasts have been running for 20 weeks.
Last week, the technical and quantitative forecasts both produced negative results overall. The EUR and CHF strengthened and the GBP and JPY weakened. The results were as follows:
The running totals of the forecasts after 20 weeks so far are as follows:
Both forecasts have performed negatively to date, due solely to the very sharp and historically unprecedented counter-trend moves in the CHF over recent months. Excluding the USD/CHF pair, both have been performing positively, but the Quantitative forecast has performed significantly better.
However, it is worth noting that after 20 weeks, there is not a great deal of difference in the results. This shows how similar trading strategies do tend to even out over time.