The EUR/CAD pair fell during the session on Thursday, slicing below the 1.4750 handle. However, we did bounce a little bit towards the end of the day and as a result we could find ourselves bouncing back above the 1.4750 level. By doing so, the market could continue to go much higher, perhaps heading as high as 1.50 in the short-term, and 1.55 in the long-term.
You should keep in mind that the 50 day exponential moving average is just below, and that quite often attracts a lot of big money as long-term traders typically use this is one of their favorite moving averages. Because of this, I believe that we will see this market bounce, and besides that I think there are a couple other possible catalysts going forward as potential bearishness in the Canadian dollar could rear its head again.
Canadian Employment Change
The Canadian Employment Change numbers come out during the session today, and that of course will have a massive effect on what happens with the Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy has been fairly soft lately, and poor jobs numbers certainly will do no favors for the Canadian dollar. With that being said, it makes sense that today could be a significant session in this particular pair. Granted, the European Central Bank suggested that it was willing to add to quantitative easing if the economy needed it, and that of course spooked the Euro bulls during the session on Thursday. However, there is a high probability that the jobs numbers could reverse this move.
On top of that, you cannot forget that the oil markets are working against the value the Canadian dollar in general also. If they fall, this pair should rise. At this point in time, I believe that if we can break back above the 1.4750 level, this pair will grind its way to the 1.50 handle. If we get above there, I feel that it becomes a longer-term buy-and-hold type of scenario. I have no interest in selling at the moment.
