The EUR/CHF pair fell significantly during the course of the session on Monday, breaking down below the 1.09 level. The area below still offers plenty of support though, so although we have seen quite a bit of negativity I am not willing to sell this market at the moment. In fact, I believe that support runs all the way down to the 1.07 level, and it is not until we get below there that I would consider shorting this market.
Ultimately, I feel that the Swiss National Bank will continue to work against the value the Swiss franc, and that of course will continue to put a bit of a bid in this pair. The Swiss are naturally opposed to this market falling with any real significance, and as a result the markets should continue to find buyers every time we dipped. It is under this thesis that I am looking for buying opportunities.
Short-term charts?
I think that perhaps looking to short-term charts might be the way to go in this market, as I believe that the back and forth trading will probably continue. That short-term supportive candle that I’m looking for could be an opportunity to pick up 100 pips or so. Ultimately, if we can break above the 1.10 level, I feel that the market can continue to go much higher, as we would essentially do a “round-trip” of the meltdown after the currency peg was abandoned by the Swiss National Bank.
With this, the market essentially has a nice floor and it at this moment, and with that I think that selling isn’t even possible. Even if we broke down below the 1.07 level, I feel that the Swiss will eventually get involved directly. Ultimately, I think that every time this market pulls back during the uptrend it should be a buying opportunity and as a result I think that a significant amount of careers will be made on this reversal of fortune when it comes to the EUR/CHF pair.
