The EUR/CHF pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Thursday, but found enough resistance near the 1.09 level to turn things back around and fall towards the 1.08 level. With that being the case, I now believe that we are heading back towards the bottom of the consolidation area, somewhere near the 1.07 level. Ultimately, the European Central Bank suggesting that perhaps there will be more quantitative easing in the future brought down the value the Euro, but you have to keep in mind that there are a lot of forces at work in this pair.
The first thing you need to pay attention to is the fact that there is a significant amount of support below, and the consolidation should continue to go forward. I anticipate plenty of support in the area of the 1.07 level, and as a result the market should bounce on signs of any type of support. I would be willing to start buying it at that area.
Swiss National Bank
The Swiss National Bank has been working against the value of the Swiss franc in this market for some time now, as has recently been released via financial statements. Because of this, I have no interest in selling this pair anyway, and I believe that the market should continue to go higher given enough time. I recognize that there will be a lot of volatility and the fact that we have the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers coming out today suggests that there could be a bit of volatility anyway. Nonetheless, I am simply looking for opportunities to go long. After all, this is a bit of an anomaly at the moment as the Swiss franc has sold off against most other currencies. This is the loan currency pair that is going against the grain, and as a result I feel that it’s only a matter of time before the market continues to follow the old correlations of the Swiss franc moving in tandem against several different currencies.
