This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 11 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
* Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.
* Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
* Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
* Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let’s take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast March 2016
This month, we forecast that the AUD will rise in value against the USD.
Weekly Forecast 6th March 2016
Last week, we forecasted that CAD/JPY would fall in value and EUR/CAD would rise in value. CAD/JPY actually rose in value by 1.31%, and EUR/CAD fell in value by 0.78%, meaning the forecast performed negatively.
This week, we forecast that GBP/USD will fall in value, primarily because it has moved very strongly against a prevailing long-term trend and is now facing key overhead resistance at 1.4250.
This week has seen strength primarily in the Australian Dollar, as well as in the British Pound, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar. Broadly speaking, there is an improvement in global risk sentiment which has seen risk and commodity currencies, as well as stocks and crude oil, rise in value.
Volatility was the same as last week previous week, with two-thirds of the major and minor currency pairs changing in value by more than 1%. Volatility is quite likely to be at least a little lower this week.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
At the FX Academy, we teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.