Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken from 8am New York time until 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period.
Short Trades
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 110.72 or 111.47.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade 1
- Go long following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 109.63.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
The price continues to consolidate, holding above two short-term ascending trend lines, without yet retesting the upper descending trend line of the long-term bearish channel, as shown in the chart below. The situation is likely to remain like this until the FOMC release later, which could push the price anywhere. I maintain a bearish bias due to the technical channel and long-term bearish trend, so I think dovish news for the USD, or a spike up to 110.72, could both produce a strong downwards movement later after the release.
There is nothing due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI and Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm. Finally, we will get the FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and Economic Projections at 7pm with the usual Press Conference half an hour later.