Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as the price action did not produce an obvious bearish pattern, but the resistance at 1.2586 held well and quite precisely, capping a significant swing high.
Today’s USD/CAD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm New York time during the next 24 hours.
Long Trade
Long entry after the next bullish price action rejection following the next touch of 1.2314.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2475 or 1.2495.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CAD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that a strong break above 1.2586 would suggest a continuing upwards movement, possibly to as high as 1.2697. In fact, the price was unable to break above the area, which produced a significant swing high, so I was correct in seeing it as a pivotal area. The price has continued down from there, and is now below some obvious lower resistance levels. There is no long-term trend, and the Canadian Dollar is not prominent in the market right now, but there may be a good short trade opportunity at a retracement to at least 1.2475 as this area is also confluent with a major round number at 1.2500.
There is nothing important due today concerning either the CAD or the USD. It is a public holiday in the U.S.A. today.