Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as neither of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period only.
Long Trades
Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,164 or $9,508.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,263.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it felt as if short-term direction was becoming much more difficult to predict, so a period of consolidation with relatively high volatility looked like the most likely outcome. This is what happened, as the price failed to break up past a resistant area a little under $12,000 and has fallen in two waves, printing still lower new resistance now at the former minor support level of $10,894. We have also seen a break of a supportive trend line, so overall the picture is considerably less bullish. The next movement is extremely difficult to predict now, as the action is consolidative and there is still strong support below. It seems that the likely situation over the short-term will be a continuation of range plays, so dropping down time frames and taking sharp rejections of key levels will probably be a good strategy to use.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Crude Oil Inventories data at 4pm London time.