Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered from 8am New York time until 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period.
Short Trade
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 108.05.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Long entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 106.29 or 105.86.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it looked as if buyers were going to drive this pair into an even deeper counter-trend movement. I took a bullish bias on this pair. The price initially rose strongly but was knocked down by the surprising firing by President Trump of his Secretary of State. Despite the downwards movement, which might not yet be over, the picture still looks fundamentally bullish on this pair. In fact, this pair stands out as the one major where the U.S. Dollar looks to be in the strongest position technically. Note how the price has formed a rough bullish channel, and yesterday invalidated the final descending trend line. No key support level has been breached by the downwards move, and the level at 106.29 has not even been tested. Despite the long-term bearish trend, I see the best opportunity that might arrive today as a long from a bullish bounce off 106.29. I do not exactly have a bullish bias today, but I think that over the coming days 106.29 is more likely to hold as support than break down.
There is nothing due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales and PPI data at 12:30pm London time, followed later by Crude Oil Inventories at 2:30pm.