Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as the bullish price action took place a few pips below the support level identified at 106.03.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time and 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period.
Short Trade
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 105.98.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that a bearish breakdown looked likely over the short-term, although I also noted that the support close to 106.00 was likely to be strong. I was correct to take this bearish bias. It looked as if the price was recovering from a low around 105.50 at the close of last week, but the price has been falling again below that, enough to invalidate the support level at 105.44. There is now no support below, so the price has room to fall further and is showing signs of dropping more and more. The low of last week has still not been breached, but there is no reason not to maintain a bearish bias, especially as this is in line with the long-term trend. It seems that the Yen benefits from stocks being sold off, and we are certainly seeing major stock indices turn bearish too.
There is nothing due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.