Yesterday’s signals produced a losing long trade from the bullish bounce at 1.2286.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2286.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I had no directional bias yesterday. I wrote that the picture would look more bearish below 1.2286 and more bullish above 1.2384. It looks as if 1.2286 has been a useful benchmark, as after the price broke below it after initially rising, the level was retested, and the bears won, so it has become probable support. There is still a long-term bullish trend, but that is of little use: as there is no support until the 1.2000 area below, there are no obvious levels at which to look for long trade entries anywhere close by. The technical situation suggests a bearish bias now but be aware a forecast of the crucial NFP will be released later today – if there is any surprise, it could drive the price anywhere with a volatile spike.
There is nothing due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 3pm and Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm.