BTC/USD
Bitcoin rallied a bit during the day on Tuesday as traders in the United States came back from the Memorial Day celebration. However, we are most certainly negative overall, and it looks as if the $8000 level above will continue to be very resistive. When I look at the longer-term charts, the major support is closer to the $6000 level, so I think ultimately this will be an opportunity to start selling again. I think that signs of exhaustion are to be sold, especially considering how strong the US dollar has been as of late. On the other hand, if we were to break above the $8000 level, the market could go higher, perhaps reaching towards the $9000 level after that. I suspect it would take a significant amount of momentum building to have that happen, so it makes more sense that we would see selling on signs of exhaustion than anything else.
BTC/JPY
Bitcoin rallied a bit against the Japanese yen as well, which of course coincides nicely with overall bitcoin strength. The ¥900,000 level above should be resistance though, just as the 100-day moving average is sitting just above there. I believe that the “ceiling” in the market is probably closer to the ¥1 million level, so I’m waiting for signs of exhaustion to start shorting again. I believe that we will go looking towards the ¥700,000 level, completing the move to the lower part of the consolidation. The market failed to reach the highs of the overall consolidation area that I have marked out on the chart, at least the last time we attempted to. Because of this, I suspect that we will see plenty of selling that eventually, and this is typically a very negative sign longer-term. I have no interest in buying.
