Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at 1.2005.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may be taken before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade
* Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2060 or 1.2104.
* Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
* Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
* Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
* Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1929 or 1.1885.
* Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
* Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
* Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I was correct to take a bearish bias yesterday, and to forecast that the 1.2000 level might be reached. The U.S. Dollar advanced quite strongly, especially against the Euro and the British Pound, especially the latter. There was no news, but the first day of a new calendar month can produce stronger than usual price movements as institutions rebalance.
Technically, it could be said that the support at 1.2000 has been invalidated, but there is still a good chance that the area will provide some support, at least over the short term. There are major USD-related releases due later, and it might be that the market flattens out ahead of that. The price action over the past few hours is also going sideways. I maintain a bearish bias, but I doubt we will see a repeat of yesterday’s strong fall, at least until after the ADP forecast due later. This might push the price anywhere.
There is nothing due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 3pm and the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm.