Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was insufficiently bearish price action at either 1.1748 or 1.1769.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today over the next 24-hour period.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of the bearish trend line at 1.1800, or at 1.1875 or 1.1897.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1761 or 1.1742.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it looked as if the price would make another upwards move and attempt to break beyond 1.1750 before it could fall below 1.1648. This is what happened. However, I thought that 1.1750 would be likely to hold, and I was wrong about that. There is strong short-term bullishness on the Euro, against the long-term trend, because the market is now focusing on the possibility that the ECB will soon end its long-run quantitative easing (i.e. money printing) program, which all else remaining equal, is bullish for the Euro. Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar continues to fall weakly, while the Euro is the strongest currency right now, over the short-term. This pair is at the heart of the market’s focus right now.
The only technical obstacle remaining which might stop a further rise is the last descending trend line which is shown in the price chart below, currently sitting confluent with the round number at 1.1800. Below, it looks as if the former area of resistance centred upon the psychological level of 1.1750 has now flipped to become likely support.
If the price can get established above 1.1800 soon, then I will have a bullish bias today.
There is nothing due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.