Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the identified levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9978 or 1.0010.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.9922 or 0.9905.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I took a weakly bearish bias yesterday below the upper bearish trend line shown in the price chart below. This worked out OK, as the price is lower now than it was 24 hours ago. The price also fell most cleanly during the first few hours after my analysis. No key levels were reached, and the chart below now still shows the same technical picture dominated by an area of bearish trend lines. However, we are also getting major higher lows above the support level at 0.9922, which suggests that bulls are present and prepared to buy. This combination makes me too nervous to have a bias, as a “bull surprise” which pushed the price suddenly and sharply above the trend lines looks possible. Maybe the most useful thing I can say is that such a move would trigger stops and probably be quite liquid, so there might be a quick long trade there. Alternatively, a bullish bounce at 0.9922 still looks attractive.
There is nothing important due today concerning the CHF. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Crude Oil Inventories data at 3:30pm London time.