Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bullish price action took place below $6,367.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period only.
Long Trades
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,353 or $6,171.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trades
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,569 or $6,643.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it looked likely that $6,367 would be the day’s pivotal level, and if the price could not break below here over the next few hours, it was likely to rise, although it might be a struggle as there has been quite a lot of selling lately. This wasn’t a bad call, although the price was able to break the level a little before quickly rising again, though as expected, it was not able to rise by very much.
The technical picture has not changed much, I have just moved the nearest support don a little to $6,353 and drawn new lower resistance at $6,479. The short-term direction looks weakly bullish but over the medium-term, it is impossible to make a good call here. I think the most exciting levels are far away: the support at $6,171 and the resistance at $6,643.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Crude Oil Inventories data at 3:30pm London time, followed by the FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and Economic Projections at 7pm, and the usual press conference half an hour after that.