Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at 1.1400.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1444 or 1.1486.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1353 or 1.1340.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that we may have a medium to long-term double bottom forming at 1.1444, although resistance at 1.1486 was also holding. Overall, the next directional move is uncertain, but there was certainly a weak, long-term bearish trend, so I would still be bearish below 1.1444. This was a good call as the price broke strongly below 1.1444 and fell by about 50 pips from there before making the low of the day during the New York session later.
This pair is in a long-term bearish trend, but it is a weak trend with slow movement and low volatility, as well as many bullish retracements which cut quite deep. Direction looks uncertain right now, but a good bearish reversal off a continued retracement back to 1.1444 could be an excellent short trade opportunity – I would be bearish following that set-up if it arises later today. However, the ECB are giving their monthly release later, so there is likely to be volatility and some unpredictable price movement.
Regarding the EUR, there will be a release of the Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45pm London time, followed by the usual press conference 45 minutes later. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Core Durable Goods Orders at 1:30pm.