Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1433 or 1.1486.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1384 or 1.1340.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that while I was generally bearish, the ECB were giving their monthly release later, so there was likely to be volatility and some unpredictable price movement. This was a good call as after an initial rise following the release, the price turned more bearish and began to make new lows.
There is undoubtedly a long-term bearish trend here, and it looks more likely to continue than reverse, although the price is getting close to multi-month lows and what is likely to be a major long-term support area at about 1.1300 and below. However, the momentum is certainly bearish. We had a strong bullish move up last Friday, but that has run out of steam, and the price is now consolidating above the new support at 1.1384. If the price breaks below that, and breaks further to about 1.1375 and below, that would be a bearish sign, and I would take a bearish bias then. If the level is tested and continues to hold, that would be a bullish sign, so 1.1384 is likely to be pivotal today.
There is nothing important due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.