WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but found the downtrend line at the top of the consolidation triangle a bit too much and rolled over again to test the bottom. I think at this point, if we break down below and it should be noted that we closed at the lows of the day, I think that breaking below the $50 level will probably unwind oil down to somewhere near the $47.50 level. Ultimately, I think we are waiting to see which direction we finally break, and with the production cuts not lifting the market that suddenly becomes a very ominous sign. Will have to see how things shake out, but below $50 I think that the sellers will come in and jump all over this market. If we break to the upside, we need get above that downtrend line in order to reach $55, followed by $57.50 later.
Natural Gas
Natural gas markets fell most of the day, as the downtrend line at the top of the wedge has offered resistance. I think we will continue to bounce around in this area but if we do break to the upside I think the five points or zero dollars level will be massive resistance as well. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to face seasonal issues, as we should start thinking about warmer temperatures relatively soon in the futures markets, as we will be trading Spring contracts before you know it. At this point, I still favor fading rallies that show signs of exhaustion on short-term charts. If we break down through the uptrend line, then I think we go to the $4.00 level after that.
