Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at 0.7150.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered from 8am New York time to 5pm Tokyo time today only.
Long Trades
Go long following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7100, 0.7075, or 0.7039.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trades
Go short following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7201, 0.7247, or 0.7275.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday it made sense to take a very weak bullish bias until the FOMC release due later, as risk sentiment was somewhat positive, but I expected that the price would remain below 0.7200 until that time. This was a good call as the price rose slowly over that period but never reached the round number at 0.7200.
The picture remains bullish, albeit without much momentum. However, the overall environment is quite positive for the Australian Dollar. Bulls have two reasons for caution though: we have a major level above close to the psychological level of 0.7250 which may hold, and there is some high-level data due later which may provide a surprise and push the price around in an unexpected way. If the price does trade above 0.7200, I would take a bullish bias and expect to see the price reach 0.7247.
Regarding the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be giving a minor speech at 5pm London time. Concerning the AUD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 12:30am.