Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at $3,844.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be taken until 5pm Tokyo time today.
Long Trade
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,914.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trades
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4,100 or $4,373.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I would be bullish if the price could trade above $3,914 later for at least one hour. This did not happen that day, and the highest support level did not hold either, so the analysis was not very useful but at least it was not harmful.
The situation continued to develop in a more bullish way since last Thursday, and the chart below shows that the price has printed new support levels and is also well established within a bullish price channel. It looks likely that the pivotal level today will be at $3,914 as this held the price as resistance twice and has not been tested yet from the other side. I would be bullish after a bounce there, but I would not take a bearish bias until the price broke back below the support at $3,740 as this is below the bullish channel’s lower trend line.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.