Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade
Go short following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9847.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
Go long following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9744.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the U.S. Dollar is weak, and the action is certainly mildly bearish over the medium-term, so it would make sense to take a weak bearish bias. I saw both the nearby levels as likely to be strong and would follow the direction of the reversal if it happened at either of the levels today. This was a good call insofar as the price has continued to act bearishly even though it has not been able to break below the supportive trend line shown in the price chart below. A break below this line is likely to trigger a further move down to 0.9744, where we may see a healthy bullish bounce triggering a long trade entry.
I would watch out for a move down to 0.9744 and then see what happens if the price gets there.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the CHF. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm London time.