Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at 1.1315, although the low of the day was only 1 pip above the support level at 1.1257.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1357, 1.1381 or 1.1397.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1315 or 1.1257.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I had no confidence that the bearish move would carry through despite the clear medium-term bearish trend, partly because we were in an area of long-term support and a very pivotal level at 1.1257, even though we just had a 50-day low close.
For these reasons, I was prepared to get bearish at a rejection of 1.1315 or bullish at a strong rejection of 1.1257.
This was a good call as the level at 1.1257 was missed by only half a pip or so and it gave a very strong bullish bounce.
The picture now is mixed: medium-term bearish trend, but a strong rejection of the bottom of a multi-week range. This suggests the price is quite likely to rise further, but it will be slow and will be a struggle, so trading this pair is likely to be difficult over the short-term.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of CPI data at 1:30pm London time.