Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bullish price action unfortunately took place a little way below the support level which I had identified at $3,816.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Long Trades
Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,804 or $3,552.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trades
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,876 or $3,969.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the picture remained weakly bullish as long as $3,816 continued to hold. I was ready take a weak bullish bias if there were a strong bullish bounce at that level following a bearish retracement. This was a good call but a narrow miss: the bullish turn took place slightly below $3,816.
Bulls and bears now seem to be evenly balanced despite the move up from $3,800, with the price currently just below two resistance levels. I ignore $3,858 for the time being but $3,875 could be more interesting.
The best approach will probably be to take a bullish bias a couple of hours after $3,876 is cleared or a bearish bias after a breakdown below $3,800 for a couple of hours. I think the downside has more potential.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI data at 1:30pm London time.