Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as unfortunately the bullish price action took place slightly below the support level identified at 1.1303.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1344 or 1.1397.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1298 or 1.1249.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote las Thursday that the price looked more likely to rise than fall today, so I would be much more comfortable taking long rather than short trade entries. If the price could trade above 1.1344 for a couple of hours, I thought that would be a bullish sign.
I was correct insofar as the major move of the day was bullish, unfortunately the price breached the support enough to render it not useful except as a rough guide.
There is a long-term bearish trend, but the U.S. Dollar is weak right now, so we are seeing a firm counter-trend bullish move.
A sustained break above 1.1344 would be a bullish sign, but reversals at either 1.1344 or 1.1298 could be good trades – I have no directional bias, but I think that long trades have a better probability than short trades overall.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR or the USD.