Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels were reached that day.
Today’s USD/CAD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm New York time today.
Long Trades
Go long after the next bullish price action rejection following the next touch of 1.3304 or 1.3241.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trades
Go short after the next bearish price action rejection following the next touch of 1.3376 or 1.3402.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CAD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I would be bullish if we got a couple of hourly closes above 1.3470 or a healthy bounce at any of the support levels below the current price, especially 1.3375. Neither of these scenarios played out, and as better than expected Canadian GDP data was released, the price pushed down on the Canadian Dollar’s gain, retreating from the significant long-term high prices above 1.3400.
It is hard to say what will happen next, but I feel that the price is unlikely to get established above the nearest resistance level at 1.3376, so I think either that or 1.3402 is going to be today’s pivotal level. There is support at 1.3342 which is still holding, but it looks quite likely to break down so I will not be using that level yet.
There is a repressed bullish trend, but the Canadian Dollar is unlikely to weaken enough for this is to get moving again today. I’d take a bearish bias at a strong rejection of either 1.3376 or 1.3402.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 12:30pm London time followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI at 2pm. Concerning the CAD, the Governor of the Bank of Canada will be giving a minor speech at 6:55pm.