Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at 111.79 or bullish price action at 111.38.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken from 8am New York time Tuesday until 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trades
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 111.53, 111.69 or 111.90.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 111.23 or 110.88.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that there is a weak long-term bullish trend, but it is very weak. It was also a holiday in Japan which meant that volatility was quite likely to be below average. For these reasons I saw little opportunity in this currency pair except for scalping a few pips off bounces rejecting key levels.
In a way this was not a bad call, but there has been more movement in this currency pair than I had expected. The picture certainly looks more bearish as we have seen a move down invalidating some support and printing new lower resistance. It is relatively safe to say there is no trend at all any more.
The best that can be said is that the support level at 110.88 is likely to be very strong if reached.
There is nothing important due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time.