Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at 1.1227.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1277.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1190.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it looked quite likely that we would see the price break above 1.1227. If it could trade above that level for a couple of hours, I expected a further rise over the day, but I also noted that the FOMC release due later could push the price anywhere, so I took no bias.
This was a good call as after trading above 1.1228 for two hours the price rose by approximately another 35 pips over the day before the price fell following the FOMC release, so I correctly anticipated yesterday’s course of events.
The picture now is still technically bullish as the support at 1.1190 has held, and the Euro has held up relatively well against the Dollar which is coming back after initially falling after the FOMC release. However, the short-term bearish price action suggests the impulse move is bearish, so a move down over today would not be a surprise. Much is likely to depend upon whether the support at 1.1190 holds, as that looks like being today’s pivotal point.
There is nothing important due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.