Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken between 8am and 5pm New York time today.
Short Trade
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 1.0250.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 1.0164 or 1.0131.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the Dollar seemed to be in retreat, so it looked likely that we would see a deeper bearish retracement over the course of today. I was ready to take a bullish bias if got get a strong bullish bounce at either of the nearest support levels after the New York open later today.
This scenario never happened although we did get a minor retracement. Essentially, this pair is making a relatively bullish consolidation around the 1.0200 area, and there is nothing yet to suggest the situation will change, especially as today is a holiday in Switzerland.
This pair is probably best avoided, but an optimistic release from the FOMC tonight could see a strong bullish move and perhaps even a break above the psychologically important 1.0250 level.
There is nothing important due today concerning the CHF – it is a public holiday in Switzerland today. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time, followed by the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm and the press conference half an hour later.