For the second day in a row, the USD/JPY is attempting to have an upward correction with gains reaching 108.12 at the time of writing, as investors risk appetite returns and worries ease slightly ahead of US President Trump and Chinese President's summit tomorrow on the sidelines of the G20 summit. This meeting will determine the continuation of global trade war, or try to agree on the return of negotiations between them to find quick solutions. The recent losses for this pair reached to 106.77 support level, the lowest level for more than five months. The upward correction strength depends on testing the psychological level 110.00, and the stability above it.
Overall, the Japanese yen will remain in the winning position continuously until the outcome of the meeting between the US president and the Chinese president by the end of the week. The series of negative results of the US economic data continues to confirm the slowdown of the US economy and thus increase the expectations of the near date of the US interest rate cut.
The US Federal Reserve recently confirmed the possibility of a US interest rate cut if the US economy continues to slow down, but did not specify a date or what economic developments that will support the earliest date. Thus, the US dollar has fallen sharply against major currencies. The central bank of Japan still maintains its monetary policy with its negative rates and expects no change in policy as long as the global trade war is in place, which has strongly affected the Japanese economy.
The weakness of inflation levels and recent US job numbers have added pressure on the US dollar as it supports expectations of US interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve to face a slowdown in the US economy. Japanese yen gains are still stronger against other major currencies as one of the safest safe havens with no strong signs of a near-end to the US-China trade dispute which threatens the future of the global economy.
The Federal Reserve Board kept the interest rate unchanged as expected, pointing out that it is unlikely to raise or lower interest rates in the coming months amid signs of renewed economic health while at the same time inflation is still unusually low.
Technically: As we had previously predicted, the stability of the USD / JPY below the 110.00 level will increase the pair’s bearish momentum, and it has reached the levels we expected in the previous technical analysis which are closest to the next psychological support at 107.00 and then the following support levels will be 106.45 and 105.80 respectively. These levels confirm the strength of the downward trend. On the upside, the nearest resistance levels are 108.00, 108.70 and 109.55, respectively. We still prefer to buy the pair from every bearish bounce.
In today's economic data, the economic calendar today will focus on the announcement of US GDP, Unemployment claims and pending house sales data. The pair will monitor with caution and interest the renewed global geopolitical concerns, and all about Trump's internal and external policy.
