Bitcoin: Strong bearish retracement threatens $10k
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bullish price action at $10,248.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Long Trades
Go long at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,620, $9,438, $9,236, $8,893, or $8,610.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trades
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,676 or $11,402.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the picture remained relatively bearish, within a long-term bullish trend. The key thing to watch for would probably be whether the price can stay above $10,000 for a while which would be a bullish sign. Another bullish sign would be if the price can get established above the two descending trend lines shown within the price chart below.
By these measurements, the bears are clearly winning, as can be seen quite easily from the price chart below. The price is now down by more than 30% over the past week alone. The price has been moving down in an orderly and bearish way. There are lots of bearish signals, but the price is now close to a stack of key support levels starting at $9,610 and the price has not spent much time below $10,000. This suggests that the price is going to make a either a bullish reversal or begin to consolidate above this area of congested support levels, perhaps aided by buying every time it dips below $10,000. If a consolidative pattern begins to take hold, there could be opportunities to short from confluence of resistance and either of the bearish trend lines shown in the price chart, and longs from the resistance level which marks the bottom.
There is nothing important due today concerning the USD.