Bitcoin: Medium-term bearish trend
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels were reached during the specified period.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,073, $8,893, or $8,610.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,359.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that if the price could continue its recovery and start to move up and get away from this area below $10,000, I think it would be a definite bullish sign. I also thought that a failure to break resistance and another drop back below $10,000 was a very possible and more bearish scenario.
This wasn’t a bad call as the price fell back below $10,000 quite quickly and has continued to move down to make new short-term lows. The downwards move is bounded by a medium-term bearish trend line which is shown in the price chart below.
We have a more bearish picture but there is always the chance of long-term buyers stepping in. The support level at $9,073 may be very strong. I also see a bearish failure after a “fake” bullish break of the bearish trend lines at $10,359 as a potentially very interesting area for a short trade.
I have no directional bias and would be equally interested at a reversal at either support or resistance. In the short-term, the level at $9,660 is likely to be the first pivotal point which will give us an indication of the major direction of movement over the coming day.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD.