USDCHF Analysis: Bearish below 0.9847
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no appropriate price action at any of the key levels which were reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9847, 0.9860, or 0.9885.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Idea
Go long upon the next touch of 0.9725.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that if the price could get established below 0.9850 over the next few hours, that would be a mildly bearish sign. However, I also thought that the horizontal level at 0.9815 was quite likely to keep providing support, limiting any possible further downside. This was a good call as it reflected what has happened since then.
The picture remains weakly bearish as long as the price keeps below 0.9850. The support at 0.9815 has been invalidated so the price has further to drop, but I doubt it will break below 0.9800 today. Perhaps the best scenario would be if the price stays heavy today but above 0.9800, and then we could look more confidently for a good, solid breakdown tomorrow when the markets are likely to have more volume. An alternative opportunity could be a retracement to 0.9866 and a bearish failure there as an entry signal.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the CHF or the USD.