USDCHF Analysis: Resistance at 0.9950 holds
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bullish price action took place below 0.9918.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9950 or 0.9966.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9900 or 0.9885 or 0.9975.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the price was now looking more bullish, but the resistance at 0.9950 held firmly the last time it was tested, so there could be a medium-term short opportunity at another failure there if it happened. This was a mediocre call, neither good nor bad, as that level was never reached, and the price has just gone sideways over the past 24 hours.
The price chart below shows only a small change to the technical picture, with the round number below at 0.9900 looking likely to be new support, while the resistance above at 0.9950 still looks strong.
I have no strong confidence is the likely direction of the price, but I think that if 0.9900 holds as support, we will get at least a touch of 0.9950, which might then provide a good short-term trade entry opportunity – I would take a bearish bias at a convincing, firm bearish reversal at 0.9950.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the CHF. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time.