NZDUSD: Bearish below 0.6448
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were yet reached.
Today’s NZD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades must be entered between 8am New York time Thursday and 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Idea
Go short following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6448, 0.6475, or 0.6500.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
Go long following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6347.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
NZD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that there were several bearish signs showing, so I was ready to take a bearish bias if the price was below 0.6420 at 9am New York time and falling with reasonable momentum.
This was a good call as the 0.6420 area was pivotal for the day. It held, but the establishment of lower resistance at 0.6448 plus the recent bearish price action is a signal that we are likely today to get a breakdown of the 0.6420 area and a push down to still lower prices.
An additional bearish sign is that the NZD looks weaker than the AUD, with which it is usually highly correlated, although the AUD is also quite weak.
I would again take a bearish bias on this currency pair if the price is below 0.6420 and falling with reasonably good momentum at 9am New York time.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the NZD. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 1:30pm.