USDJPY: New resistance at 106.30 holding
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the price never reached 106.73.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken from 8am New York time Thursday to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 106.30 or 106.73.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that although resistance was holding, the Yen was not strengthening much, and the price action was not really bearish. This comes at a time when there is a flight into safety as represented by precious metals and the overall market environment should really be strengthening the Yen.
I saw the best course of action as likely to be waiting to see whether the resistance level held at 106.73. The longer this level survived, the more bearish the outlook will become.
We still have a paradox, because as well as 106.73 holding as resistance, there is a new lower resistance level which formed at 106.30 which also holds. However, the price just won’t spend much time below 106.00 before bouncing back.
This means the Yen is still relatively weak while precious metals are still quite strong.
I see the price as in an area where there is strong buying below about 105.90 but strong selling also whenever the price makes a good bullish retracement.
I would take a bearish bias if we get two consecutive hourly closes below 105.85 during the first half of the New York session, although I do not think this will happen today.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the JPY or the USD.