Bitcoin: Long and short-term consolidations
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels were reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,168, $9,974 or $9,801.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,440.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that it seemed extremely difficult to forecast the next major directional price movement. I thought that the support at $9,801 was quite likely to hold and might produce a major bullish movement, so I would only look to take a bearish bias below that level, or a bullish bias if we get a strong bounce there later at a test of that level. In fact, the level was never reached so my bias was not tested.
The technical picture is interesting as it is so evenly balanced over the long term. The price chart below shows a descending trend line which starts from the calendar year’s high which was made in June. There is also an ascending trend line which puts us in a long-term consolidating triangle.
The opportunity here seems to be a short trade taken from a reversal at $10,440 especially if the rejection hits the trend line just above that price at the same time. However, bulls do seem to keep buying just below $10,000 and especially at $9,800. One side will win eventually.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the USD.