Bitcoin: Resistance confluence at $10,440 looks strong
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels given have yet been reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,974 or $9,801.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,440.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it may be that the confluence of resistance at about $10,440 has already been felt and that this level will not be hit again soon, but I would definitely want to take a bearish bias if the price gets back up there and firmly rejects that area and starts to move down again. I also thought that the two closest support levels below $10,000 were likely to be major obstacles to any serious bearish move, especially $9,800.
This was a good call and the price has not moved much. The closest support I see as relatively unreliable, so I am still looking to the same levels as yesterday. I also keep the same analysis, I see bearish pressure as building, but bears may find it difficult to push the price below $9,800.
I would take a bearish bias if we get two consecutive hourly closes below $9,800 or if we get a test and bearish failure at $10,440 with the latter being the more exciting potential trade set-up.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm London time, followed by the FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and Projections at 7pm, followed by a press conference half an hour later.