USDCHF Analysis: Gently bullish
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached yet.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 1.0033.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9958, 0.9914 or 0.9889.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the price had room to rise all the way to 1.0033, but it may face resistance at or close to the parity level as well. I would generally be weakly bullish here, but I thought there were likely to be better opportunities elsewhere.
This was a good call as it reflects how the past 24 hours played out precisely.
The situation now is technically still weakly bullish, but the SNB are about to release their quarterly guidance and interest rate which is likely to cause unpredictable price movement and a spike in volatility. There could be an opportunity here to fade any post-release spike which peaks at either key resistance or support, as this currency pair is in a long-term price consolidation.
Concerning the CHF, the SNB will be releasing their Monetary Policy Assessment and Policy Rate at 8:30am London time. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data at 1:30pm.