USDCHF Analysis: Little price movement
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no clear bearish price action when the resistance level identified at 0.9900 was reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9915 or 0.9951 or 0.9969.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9876 or 0.9820.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that if the price could get established above 0.9900 it would probably rise further, and if the price could get established below 0.9875, it will probably fall further. This turned out to not be a good call as the level at 0.9900 became unimportant and was invalidated.
The picture now is unchanged apart from the adjustment of the nearest resistance level from 0.9900 to 0.9915.
The CHF is highly correlated with the Euro and as such we are likely to see unpredictable price movement in this currency pair later when the ECB makes their monthly policy release. For this reason, the best strategy here today will probably be to fade spikes to any extreme levels shortly after the ECB release. This can be a good currency pair to use for that purpose because it has a general tendency to revert to a mean.
I take no directional bias today.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the CHF or the USD.