USDCHF Analysis: Weakly bearish below 0.9945
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level at 0.9940 was reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades may be entered before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9945, 0.9969 or 1.0033.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9911 or 0.9876.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I saw 0.9940 as the pivotal point here and that the price was still slightly more likely than not to push on upwards towards the parity area around 1.0000 over the coming days. I was right about the first part but seemingly not the second as the price broke down and continues to fall over the short-term.
Action here is likely to closely mirror the EUR/USD currency pair, where the Euro is weakly bullish above 1.1121. If the EUR/USD gets established above that level, I would expect the price here to continue to fall also.
I see the support level at 0.9911 as a candidate to produce a bullish reversal, so there could be a long trade there later.
Remember there are some big US data items due later which could create a lot of volatility, so be careful with taking off risk before those items listed below.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the CHF. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data at 12:15pm London time, followed by Advance GDP at 12:30pm, and the FOMC Statement / Federal Funds Rate at 6pm then the usual press conference half an hour later.