Bitcoin: Bearish below $8,711
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level at $9,222 was reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
⦁ Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $8,711, $8,458, or $8,102.
⦁ Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
⦁ Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
⦁ Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
⦁ Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $8,893, $9,094, or $9,233.
⦁ Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
⦁ Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
⦁ Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I saw the best opportunity as a long trade, either from the support at $9,222 or following a breakout above $9,489. We had no such breakout, and the level at $9,222 was not supportive when it was reached, so this call was only enough to stay out of any failed long trades.
The technical picture is now more bearish, and we can draw a symmetrical bearish price channel, shown in the chart below, which on the balance of probabilities should be respected somewhat by the price action as long as it holds. Therefore, a short trade from a bearish rejection of $9,233 would look very attractive if it sets up. The two lower resistance levels could also be interesting for shorts. If the price can break below $8,711 and stay there for a couple of hours, the picture would look even more bearish until $8,102 where long-term buyers would be likely to step in.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD as it is a public holiday in the U.S.A.