USDJPY: More bullish above 109.10
Last Thursday’s signals may have produced a profitable short trade from the resistance level given at 109.48, but given the long-term bullish trend, it may be wise to close any remainder of such a position out with profit now.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered from 8am to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Ideas
⦁ Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 109.10, 109.48, or 109.96.
⦁ Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
⦁ Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
⦁ Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
⦁ Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 108.82, 108.65, or 108.30.
⦁ Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
⦁ Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
⦁ Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I would still look for another long if we had gotten a retracement to the two nearest support levels, but shorts from 109.21 could also be interesting. If the price ended the week above 109.21, I thought that would be a very important long-term bullish sign.
I was right to look to a long trade direction, as the dominant move up that day was strong. The weekly closing price was exactly 109.21 so that wasn’t as bullish a sign as I had hoped for. This pair is respecting a lot of the obvious key price levels: for example, the resistance at 109.48 I identified provided last week’s high practically to the pip.
Although we have seen a break of support following the move down from the long-term high prices, bulls can still hope for another strong move up here, as long as it happens before the end of the next Tokyo session. For this reason, any bullish bounces at 108.82 or 108.65 which might set up later would be attractive long trades, due to the long-term bullish trend having made new long-term higher highs at the end of last week. Bulls should then want to see the Tokyo session end above 109.21 to have confidence that such a bullish movement would be likely to continue. Above 109.10 would also be bullish, but less so.
Alternatively, if we get a break today below 108.65, that would be a bearish sign that 109.48 will be a medium or long-term high.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the JPY or the USD. It is a public holiday today in the U.S.A