Bitcoin: Bearish head & shoulders would complete below $7,000
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when $7,260 was reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $7,043, $6,786, or $6,441.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $7,260, $7,317, $7,469, or $7,698.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the bearish head and shoulders pattern remained valid and prone to complete, so a break below the support at $7,043 and also the round number confluent with it at $7,000 would be a bearish sign and I would take a bearish bias if it happened. Conversely, if the price could get established above $7,700 it would invalidate the bearish head and shoulders pattern completely and so would be a bullish sign.
This was a good call and the analysis is still valid and can be used again today. The price action over the past day has made the technical picture slightly more bearish, with the former support at $7,260 breaking down and clearly flipping to become new lower resistance. All that is needed for the bearish patter to complete is a break below $7,000 which could see the price move quickly down to $6,441 or possibly even lower.
I will take a bearish bias today if we get two consecutive hourly closes below $7,000 and the price then breaks to a new low for the day, at least as far as $6,441.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time.